This was the most interesting of the four finals, not because the purse was $1.5 milliom (thank you, Pepsi) but because it had a little bit (or a lot a bit) of
everything; the Good ... the Bad ...and the downright Ugly! Let's get the ugly out of the way first. My first "ugly" is the preposterous post
selection by George Teague, putting his horse in an impossible spot. It's one thing to draw bad, but when you select a horrendous post you should get what
you ask for, and boy he did! What possible 'good trip' scenario could he have expected from the horse or Cory when you are forced to move early and
fend off the big guns, or sit in and get totally cut off from life as we know it. This has got to be one of the biggest screwups in recent harness history,
and only the Campbell/Life Sign (1993 MedPace) wheellocking keeps it from being the dumbest unforced screwup ever. But had the Teague connections picked the 6
or 7 hole, it would merely have given Mr. Wiggles a shot, pacing off the pace with solid cover. It gets uglier than that, though. Steve Condren. His horse
drew the golden post position, the live helmet of Well Said. Did Whebby or Steve Condren look skyward and thank the harness gods? Nooooooooo. These two
harness genuises decided that they would fool the harness world by LEAVING the gate, force a fast first quarter, and then brush to the dreaded front and hold
off the cavalry with their stone cold closer. Two stables, two unforced clown acts, all in the center ring. Sad. The 'Bad.' Once again Brian Sears
displays an inability to handle a tricky post assignment. Once Mr. Wiggles left and Keep It Real took the open spot, there was nothing left for Sears to do
but brush immediately after KIR who would have had to yield or face certain destruction. To wait and tangle with KIR firstup while giving Well Said the
perfect trip couldn't possibly have been the right answer. Now this is not to suggest that Dial Or Nodial would win with that move, but you have to answer
the bell when it rings, and the NA Cup only rings once in a horse's career. Sears is looking more and more like a good driver, not someone you would want
along side you in a foxhole. More 'Bad,' If I Can Dream. The betting public has caught on to this one, sending him off at a fat mutuel. Seems he can
only dream about winning unless he trips out against a single foe. Can't take any hits and remain standing. Wish I owned him, but he can't be
expected to win against the top tier on a big track. The 'Good.' That would be the trip Well Said got in the race and the drive Pierce gave him, but
any major league driver would have done the same. What is better than good is the explosive last quarter Well Said paced, so kudos to the Elliott team for
answering the bell and having this guy primed for the moment. Last week was too early, and next week is too late. Others might learn from that. Three Ron
Pierce qualifiers in May, each a tad faster. Some one was paying attention and it paid off ... it usually does. Nice job. TeaTrick
PEPSI NORTH AMERICA CUP: Post mortem
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 TeaTrick |
PEPSI NORTH AMERICA CUP: Post mortem |
Lead | ||
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Posts: 310 06/28/09 1:55 PM |
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Broussard |
Agree with | #1 | ||
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Posts: 247 06/28/09 2:17 PM |
pretty much everything you said Tea, except for perhaps the Sears/Dial or No Dial comments. Assuming Dial and Keep it Real were closely matched in ability, as
was assumed by the public and the Dial connections, the horse was perfectly positioned to clear KR, not to "tangle with him first up." KR had only
recently cleared Dream, having been used relatively hard to do so, and didn't really have much of a breather before Sears came at him. As I watched the
race live, I was pretty sure Sears had timed it perfectly and was going to clear, not saying that he would necessarily also hold off Well Said and/or any other
contender in the back mind you. At any rate, to me, it now appears to be the case that Dial is just not nearly as good as KR (or, at a minimum, not nearly as
good last night). Of course, knowing what I now know (or think I know), specifically that Dial is a cut below KR, then yes, Sears gave a bad drive.
Otherwise, I think it was just the horse being not good enough.
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Broussard |
Dial | #2 | ||
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Posts: 247 06/28/09 3:48 PM |
Now they're reporting Dial suffered a leg injury. Who knows whether and/or to what extent that played into his otherwise poor performance. Legitimate
excuse or just a cut below Well Said and Keep it Real? (or maybe both).
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TeaTrick |
Hi, Brous | #3 | ||
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Posts: 310 06/28/09 4:15 PM |
My gripe with Sears drive is that he needed to realize where he was after leaving the quarter pole. I will give him a pass for not closing the hole and
forcing Condren to the front, but once he seated Condren and had Pierce on his back, "Job One" had to be, get the heck out of there. I will give
him another pass for not beating Condren with his own quarter move. But once Condren quarter-moved, the only play left was to get on his helmet down the back.
One of two things will happen under that scenario: Brennan will sense a shuffle and try to hold the fort, or Brennan will yield to KIR. If Brennan holds,
then Sears gets a perfect cover trip. If Brennan yields then KIR yields and he MUST yield to Dial. I don't suggest for a minute that anything Sears did
cost him the race given Well Said's monstrous closing quarter. But Sears had no way of knowing that down the back, and he failed to take any action to get
out of the coffin he was in when he seated KIR. I really believe him to be rather gutless in his driving style, and can't handle criticism,which he got
after his drive in the Jersey Classic. Again, he wasn't winning here, but he wound up with nothing (fifth). You just can't do worse. TeaTrick
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Broussard |
Tea | #4 | ||
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Posts: 247 06/28/09 4:38 PM |
Agree that the most logical thing would have been to immediately follow the KR brush. Not sure if that was Sears' fault for not attempting or whether the
horse was just not ready to move that quickly. Remember, if he immediately pulls, he must really follow and be prepared to go all out for the lead (i.e.,
meaning he must quickly be all over KR's back such that if/when KR clears, he can immediately clear KR or put Condren to a major decision). If he pulls
behind KR and is not ready to get all over his back as KR brushes to the lead, then we're talking about a long and grinding first over trip, meainng no
shot (putting to the side Well Said for now, since we both agree that, even is Sears immediately followed KR to the lead, he was not going to beat Well Said
and his 52 and 1 last half).
All of the above having been said Tea, I tend to agree with you that he should have pulled right behind KR and gotten all over his helmet. While it's true that Dial was a "fresh" first over threat by waitng, by not emerging as a threat until less than 3/8th to go meant that KR was not going to let him go. So, even if Dial could beat KR in the stretch, he still was going to have to deal with the second choice on his back, who, even if he was not as spectacular as he turned out to be, would still have been fresh and likely been able to beat Dial. Bottom line: I agree that Sears' drive, knowing what we knew at the time, was not particularly good, but I would probably. stop short of calling it awful. |
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dkpacer |
More Nonsense | #5 | ||
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Posts: 356 06/28/09 5:56 PM |
If you watched the race, Sears drove Dial perfect, he just didn't have enough horse, injury or not. Last week in the Elims he won the easiest division, and
the week before he was thumped @3/5 by Passmaster Hanover.
Keep It Real had a tough trip and still paced strong to the wire. Well Said was awesome ! The other pretender, If I Can Dream also showed his vulnerability. The best horse won, EASY, and the strong second best horse, finished 3rd beaten a nose for place. |
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Broussard |
Agree | #6 | ||
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Posts: 247 06/28/09 6:13 PM |
with what you are saying DK: Winner was awesome and Keep it Real raced real well. Art Colony, though he had a perfect trip, was the third most impressive
horse. Nobody else, including Dial, showed anything. Dial was/is simply not good enough, no question. I was only addressing whether Sears should have driven
his horse differently following Tea's prompt, playing around with the couple of hypothetical scenarios, specifically whether, knowing what was known or
perceived at the time (including Dial's supposed quality), Dial should have been on KR's back as KR brushed. As it turns out of course (as you point
out DK), it didn't matter what drive Dial got. L:ike I said, I thought at the time, Sears had it timed perfectly. I was only, at Tea's prompting,
surmising that maybe he should have quickly followed KR, but again it didn't matter and that discussion is for hypothetical purposes only:
Bottom line: the story, and only story from the race, is thatWell Said came home in 52 and 1 to win, with at 25 and 4 last quater. |
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hoosierboy |
#7 | |||
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Posts: 549 06/29/09 10:22 PM |
I heard that Dial has a leg injury does anyone have any details
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LAAG |
#8 | |||
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Posts: 439 06/30/09 8:48 PM |
havent heard anything on his injury... Sears moved Dial too early in the New Jersey Classic. The horse has talent but his brush to the top needs to be timed
right. When I saw Sears move with him when he did in the NA Cup I knew he was doomed. Maybe later in the year but right now Dial cant make the brush and crush
he will have to develop that.
Well Said was awesome but this is still somewhat of a wide open 3 YO division. He is beatable. I guess it could make for some good betting down the line with no standouts. |
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BermyPaceFan |
Update - sort of | #9 | ||
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Posts: 101 06/30/09 9:14 PM |
All x-rays have been negative. Campbell says the injury is a 'mystery'. Here is the article: http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/news/6-29-09/campbell-on-dial-or-nodial.html |
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